Asif Mahmood

One of the gravest threats to peace in the Middle East stems from Israel’s expansionist interpretation of the biblical “Land of Israel.” Unlike most modern states, Israel has never settled on internationally agreed permanent borders. Instead, influential strands within Israeli political and religious thought continue to invoke the biblical promise of territory stretching from the Nile to the Euphrates as the historical foundation of Israel’s territorial claims. To Israel’s critics, this ideology poses a direct challenge to the sovereignty of neighboring states because it treats territory beyond Israel’s internationally recognized boundaries as part of a historic Jewish homeland.

The Hamas attacks of 7 October 2023 provided the opportunity that advocates of this vision had long awaited. Israel launched its military campaign in Gaza claiming the right of self-defense, but the conflict soon acquired a much wider strategic dimension. Calls by senior Israeli politicians for permanent control of Gaza, proposals advocating the displacement of Palestinians, continued settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, military advances into southern Lebanon and Syria, and sustained pressure on Iran convinced many observers that Israel was pursuing an expansionist agenda designed to reshape the political geography of the Middle East.

The strategy depended on one essential condition: a region consumed by conflict. If Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and the Gulf states became embroiled in a prolonged war, the Middle East would fragment into competing military camps. Regional diplomacy would collapse, governments would focus on their own survival, and Israel would find itself facing weakened neighbors with little capacity to resist new geopolitical realities. Gaza, Lebanon, Syria and Iran were therefore not isolated theatres of conflict. They formed successive stages of a strategy that many critics believe was intended to create exactly such an environment.

Pakistan viewed these developments differently. Islamabad concluded that the greatest danger was no longer confined to Gaza or Iran. It was the prospect of a regional war that could permanently alter the balance of power in the Middle East. Preventing that outcome became a strategic priority. Pakistan’s longstanding relations with both Tehran and Riyadh placed it in a unique diplomatic position. While publicly condemning attacks on Iran, Islamabad worked quietly to ensure that the crisis did not draw Saudi Arabia into direct military confrontation. Riyadh’s restraint proved decisive. Once Saudi Arabia stayed out of the conflict, other Gulf states also resisted pressure to escalate.

Working in close coordination with Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Qatar, Pakistan gradually shifted the focus from military escalation to diplomatic engagement. The Islamabad initiative, followed by intensive negotiations, reopened channels of communication at a moment when the region appeared to be moving towards a much wider war. The resulting ceasefire prevented the conflict from expanding into a regional catastrophe and created space for a broader political process. Pakistan also refused to link its policy on Israel to proposals for expanding the Abraham Accords, maintaining that any lasting peace in the Middle East must begin with justice for the Palestinians rather than diplomatic normalization alone.

The importance of this diplomatic effort extends far beyond a single ceasefire. Had the Middle East descended into a broader regional war, Israel would have found itself operating in an environment of unprecedented regional fragmentation. Instead, coordinated diplomacy denied it that opportunity. Pakistan, together with Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Qatar, helped prevent a strategic crisis from becoming a geopolitical transformation. That achievement ranks among the most significant diplomatic successes in Pakistan’s recent history, not simply because it reduced the risk of another devastating war, but because it frustrated an expansionist agenda that threatened the sovereignty and stability of the entire region.