The water cycle on Earth is oscillating between extremes. According to the most recent State of Global Water Resources report from the World Meteorological Organization, barely one-third of river basins saw “normal” conditions in 2024. The remaining ones fluctuated between dry and inundated, confirming a six-year trend of unpredictable flows. Glaciers are retreating as well: Last year, 450 gigatonnes of ice disappeared, causing the sea level to rise by 1.2 mm. Since the majority of small-glacier areas have already reached their “peak water” point, rivers will now get less water as the ice melts. The Indus, which supplies water to more than 240 million people in Pakistan, experienced an above-normal discharge in 2024. However, the excess is misleading.

It shows volatility rather than steadiness. Last year, flash floods caused by heavy spring rains destroyed villages and damaged crops. Flooding was once again triggered by this year’s intense monsoon rains, which also did little to stabilize supplies. Groundwater is still being pumped out more quickly than it can be refilled in the meantime. This instability is an existential hazard in a nation where agriculture uses more than 90% of the freshwater that is available. Additionally, the WMO affirms that 2024 was the warmest year on record. This is particularly important for the glaciers of the Hindu Kush-Himalaya, which supply water to the Indus and are rapidly melting. Pakistan’s reliance on unpredictable monsoons will increase as melt water levels decrease.

 Hunger results from too little rain, and ruin from too much.  We shouldn’t be surprised by any of this. Devastating floods struck the nation in 2010 and 2022, displacing millions of people and wiping out years of progress. However, not much has changed since then. Urban drainage is in ruins, irrigation is still wasteful, and groundwater is unregulated. Provinces’ share of water is tainted by distrust. Unpredictable flows could put more strain on the already precarious Indus Waters Treaty with India. The lesson is that Pakistan’s water dilemma is structural rather than sporadic. Floods and droughts are both manifestations of the same climate-driven unpredictability, so treating them as separate catastrophes misses the mark. The nation must invest in climate-resilient infrastructure, early-warning systems, and monitoring.  More significantly, it need governance reforms to effectively and fairly manage its most valuable resource.  The global water cycle is getting increasingly unpredictable, as the WMO makes evident.  Pakistan cannot afford to be unprepared because it is still dependent on a single river system.