The current negotiations in Istanbul between Pakistan and the Afghan Taliban represent a kind of test for regional stability and the future dynamics of Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.  Following two unproductive meetings and months of escalating tensions at the border, both parties have resumed negotiations – this time in light of recent violent confrontations and growing discontent in Islamabad regarding the Afghan Taliban’s lack of action against the TTP and other militant organizations based in Afghanistan. Pakistan’s position has been clear and consistent: action against the TTP and all terrorist groups involved in cross-border violence must be visible and effective.

Unfortunately, even with the ceasefire arranged by Qatar and Turkiye and two prior negotiation rounds, progress has been minimal. The reports from the initial two sessions in Istanbul were also not promising. The Afghan Taliban’s reported response to clear evidence of TTP and BLA activity was characterized by participants as “illogical and detached from ground realities.” Such evasions only bolster suspicions regarding Kabul’s willingness – or capability – to pursue authentic regional peace. It seems that the issue extends beyond mere obstinacy as well.  The Afghan Taliban’s decision-making structure is fragmented and characterized by internal divisions and a lack of centralized authority, which has long impeded coherent policy responses.  There have been instances where the Kabul regime has made conflicting statements, such as during the Doha rounds. This indicates that even individuals open to dialogue may not have the authority to take action.

 Nevertheless, Afghan media reports suggest a tentative hope, indicating that the Taliban delegation is ‘hopeful’ about reaching an agreement on most issues and that a joint statement may be forthcoming.  It is yet to be determined if this represents a true breakthrough or merely another tactic for delay. At this moment, it seems that Pakistan is entering into these negotiations with a renewed sense of firmness. After exhausting diplomatic channels and patient appeals, Islamabad’s choice to adopt a firmer tone—supported by credible intelligence and mediation from Qatar and Turkiye—appears to have altered the tone of discussions. As reported, Pakistan provided comprehensive evidence of cross-border infiltration and terrorist activities, which led Turkiye to emphasize to the Taliban delegation the seriousness of the situation and the robustness of Pakistan’s case. While the demands from Pakistan are logical and supported by evidence, reason may not be sufficient to influence an opponent motivated by ideological loyalty. The Afghan Taliban still regard the TTP as an ally, and their hesitance to confront them is a reflection of both political considerations and a sense of brotherhood.

If they continue to ignore the situation, however, they will not only risk alienating Pakistan, but also find themselves increasingly pressured by countries like Qatar, Turkiye, China, Russia, Iran, and the Central Asian republics – all of which have a vested interest in curbing terrorism and promoting regional stability. It is now very clear that Pakistan has little room left for further patience or ambiguity.  Islamabad cannot permit the status quo to persist indefinitely after presenting clear, evidence-based, and solution-oriented demands.  If Kabul continues to be unwilling to take action, Pakistan might have to consider alternative means of protecting its national security.  While the talks in Istanbul may not result in an immediate breakthrough, they do signify a critical juncture.  The Afghan Taliban must choose how they want to be perceived: as responsible state actors dedicated to peace, or as facilitators of violence and instability.