Reshape Pakistan’s water future

India’s unilateral move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) represents not just a legal and diplomatic rupture but a warning shot. For over six decades, the IWT stood as a model of transboundary cooperation. Its breakdown signals a new era of uncertainty, one that threatens Pakistan’s very water foundation. Rather than respond with panic or inertia, this moment must become a national turning point. We can no longer afford to let our future remain hostage to geopolitical shocks or outdated systems. The looming water crisis, exacerbated by climate change and population pressures, demands transformative action — not tomorrow, but today. By 2050, Pakistan’s population will double, while per capita water availability could fall by half. To maintain current levels of water security, Pakistan must quadruple its water productivity. This is an ambitious but necessary target. We need a bold, comprehensive water strategy. Agriculture consumes over 90% of our water, yet our productivity is among the lowest globally. Sustained water productivity gains of 1–2% annually could achieve a 28–64% improvement over 25 years — ensuring food security with far less water. This means moving away from inefficient flood irrigation toward modern systems like drip and precision irrigation. It means embracing digital water monitoring, laser land leveling, and conservation agriculture that enhances soil moisture. It also means revisiting our crop choices: staple crops like sugarcane and rice use disproportionate water relative to their economic value. Our irrigation infrastructure loses 60% of water. Modernizing canals and lining watercourses can drastically reduce these losses. We should strengthen the Pakistan Agricultural Research Council. Pakistan’s hill torrent systems, often seen as a source of destruction, are in fact an untapped asset. Today, they irrigate a mere 0.84–3.16 million acres. With investment in remote sensing, AI-based forecasting, and local water storage, this could increase to 17 million acres, benefiting 15–20 million people in some of our poorest regions. Hill torrent development can bypass the contentious inter-provincial debates that often accompany canal-based water distribution. With the right planning, it could add 12–16 million acre-feet (MAF) annually — more than our entire current water storage capacity. Pakistan’s coastal cities, especially Karachi and Hyderabad, face an acute water crisis. Desalination, once considered prohibitively expensive, is now viable — especially when powered by renewable energy. With the right regulatory frameworks and public-private partnerships, desalination can supply water to 25–30 million people, while easing pressure on the Indus Basin. Wastewater recycling must also become central to our urban water planning. Subsidized water has long distorted demand and encouraged waste. It is time for rational pricing — gradually introduced over a 25-year period, with careful protections for small farmers and vulnerable groups. Smart pricing will encourage water-saving technologies, discourage water-intensive crops in dry zones, and shift urban behaviors. None of these strategies will work without a profound shift in how we govern water. Federal and provincial institutions must stop working in silos. We need integrated hydrological data systems, real-time monitoring, and a redefined role for institutions like IRSA and WAPDA, not as competing bureaucracies but as stewards of national water resilience. Water management must become a whole-of-government priority — and a central pillar of our climate and economic strategy. The Indus Waters Treaty was born from conflict and desperation. Its partial collapse must now serve as a similar catalyst. This is not just a challenge to our water security; it is a challenge to our national imagination. Water is not just a resource. It is our lifeline, our economy, our food, our future. If we act decisively now, Pakistan can emerge from this crisis not as a victim of upstream ambition but as a regional leader in sustainable water management.