Pakistan must break free from the tobacco industry’s grip

As Pakistan confronts deepening economic challenges and an urgent need to broaden its revenue base, the tobacco industry has returned to its familiar play, deploying disinformation, exploiting loopholes, and amplifying panic over illicit trade. A flurry of op-eds, media appearances, and reports masquerading as research is no accident. They are part of a carefully timed strategy to obstruct reforms, derail taxation, and protect corporate profits at the expense of public health. This is not a new tactic. For decades, tobacco companies–especially multinationals operating in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) have used the specter of illicit trade as a smokescreen to deflect accountability. This campaign is especially visible in the weeks leading up to the federal budget in Pakistan. With sobering consistency, front groups and allied voices warn that higher taxes will worsen smuggling, destroy legitimate business, and deprive the state of revenue. But this narrative is built on half-truths and selective data. The tobacco industry often claims that it contributes up to 98% of all tobacco tax revenue, casting itself as a fiscal savior. Yet, it simultaneously asserts that its market share is shrinking due to an explosion in unregistered, untaxed cigarette sales. If this were true, we would expect to see a corresponding drop in tobacco procurement from growers and a reduction in production. Instead, figures from the Pakistan Tobacco Board show that nearly 60 million kilograms of raw tobacco were procured in 2023-24–enough to manufacture 60 billion cigarette sticks. These numbers do not lie. The industry is not shrinking, it is expanding. We have also seen a troubling convergence between media influence and policy capture. Despite bans on tobacco advertising, front groups and pseudo-research outfits place prominent ads and public service columns in mainstream newspapers during budget season. The objective is clear: normalize tobacco industry influence and sow doubt among policymakers. Perhaps most shocking is the recent decision by the government to approve the export of 10-pack cigarette boxes to Sudan–a country mired in armed conflict, with weak oversight and extreme vulnerability among its youth. This move blatantly contradicts FCTC guidance, which warns against manufacturing and marketing products likely to appeal to children and adolescents. Framing such an act as economic diplomacy is not just a policy failure–it is a humanitarian and ethical lapse. The consequences of inaction are well known. Pakistan loses over PKR 700 billion annually to tobacco-related illnesses and productivity loss, while tobacco tax collections remain under PKR 300 billion. The continued resistance to tax increases ensures cigarettes remain affordable, particularly for youth and low-income populations. What is often omitted from the industry’s narrative is that illicit trade is not an argument against taxation–it is a challenge of enforcement. Administrative reforms, such as a simplified tax structure, enhanced track-and-trace systems, and stricter border control, can and should address smuggling. We do not need to lower taxes to curb illicit trade; we need to collect taxes more effectively and equitably. The global tobacco industry has used these tactics before–from the Philippines to South Africa to Kenya–undermining public policy by manipulating data and public perception. Pakistan must learn from these cases, not replicate their mistakes. This year’s budget offers a crucial test of political will. The government can either prioritize public health by enacting robust tobacco taxation aligned with WHO recommendations, or it can capitulate once again to corporate interests that thrive on addiction and evasion. The choice is stark. Over 160,000 Pakistanis die every year from tobacco-related illnesses. That is more than 400 people each day. Behind every death is not just a disease, a failure of policy, or a failure to act. We owe future generations better.