Everyone was taken aback when PTI Chairman Imran Khan announced that the PTI would be leaving all assemblies. But, after a full day since the gauntlet was thrown, both the PTI and the sitting PDM government appear to have gone quiet. According to some analysts, Imran’s “political masterstroke” was met with scepticism by other political observers, who believe it was merely a last-ditch attempt to save face. So far, Imran’s aggressive politics have been thwarted by the PDM government. With the former prime minister’s final card, the government still has some legal options. It is unclear whether it will go for that or not. The senior leadership of the PTI has approved the decision to dissolve both assemblies where the party rules. The government appears confident in its ability to outmanoeuvre Khan on this front, whereas the PTI believes that this will force early elections across the country. The Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) has clarified, however, that in the event of dissolution, an election will be held only for the dissolved assembly and not for the entire country.
Given all of this, a variety of possibilities emerge. If the PTI succeeds in dissolving the Punjab and KP assemblies and the PDM is unable to stop them politically or legally, an interim government must be formed in both provinces with the agreement of the government and the opposition parties. Elections cannot be held within 90 days without an interim setup in both assemblies. However, the opposition in both provinces will try to create roadblocks. If the ECP holds elections in these two provinces within 90 days, whoever forms the government(s) there will do so just a few months before the general elections for National Assembly seats in 2023, as well as in Sindh and Balochistan. The question is, how does this all benefit the PTI? The party claims it is confident of winning elections in both provinces. While this is acceptable, will the distraction of the provincial assembly elections affect the PTI’s chances in the general election for seats in the National Assembly? This is a legitimate concern, given that the party will not be in power in the two provinces that it currently governs. Provincial governments are a huge help before general elections, and the PTI will have no doubt considered this.
This may be why some observers believe Imran’s threat of dissolution is just that—a threat—and will not materialise in the end. If this is a threat or a face-saving manoeuvre, one hopes that the PTI will agree to a sit-down with the PDM parties to chart a dignified, practical path forward. However, if the PTI decides to dissolve the assemblies, it is taking a calculated risk that could go either way. The results of the first phase of local government elections in Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) are not looking as promising for the PTI, despite the party’s control of the state. Could the party be caught off guard if elections are held in Punjab and KP in the coming months? And does the PTI really want to find out? Perhaps the party’s strategy is to remain relevant—through rallies, provincial elections, and whatever else—until the general election. However, the price of relevance may simply be a country that is dangerously destabilised and financially bankrupt.
