The Indus River System Authority (IRSA) has issued a stark warning to Punjab and Sindh, the primary agricultural hubs of Pakistan, about an anticipated 30-35% water shortage for the remainder of the Rabi crop season. This crisis threatens key crops, including wheat, the country’s staple, at a time when water reserves are reaching alarmingly low levels.
Reports suggest that Tarbela and Mangla, the nation’s largest reservoirs, are on the verge of hitting dead level. As a result, the provinces will be forced to operate on a run-of-the-river basis, intensifying the challenges for farmers and policymakers alike. The warning aligns with IRSA’s earlier projection in October that the country would face a severe water crisis by the end of the winter cropping cycle.
This grim scenario is hardly unexpected. Water shortages during both summer and winter cropping seasons have become the ‘new normal’ due to climate change-induced shifts in weather patterns. A sharp decline in precipitation—40% below normal winter rains and snowfall from September to mid-January—has already created drought-like conditions across the country. While February rains have mitigated some risks for the wheat harvest, persistent dry conditions and rising temperatures have exacerbated vulnerabilities.
Pakistan ranks among the top ten most climate-vulnerable nations. The increasing frequency of extreme weather events—droughts, floods, heatwaves, and erratic rainfall—signals that we are already living in a post-climate change reality. The 2022 climate catastrophe, where a devastating heatwave was followed by historic floods that displaced 33 million people, serves as a stark reminder of our fragility. Even today, many of the affected remain without homes or stable employment.
Despite these clear warnings, Pakistan’s policymakers have yet to take adequate steps to mitigate climate change impacts and protect people and the economy. Climate disasters not only strain national resources but can also push unprepared nations to the brink of economic and social collapse. This year, we may have narrowly avoided major food shortages, but there is no guarantee that fortune will favor us next year. The time to act is now—before we face an irreversible crisis
