By Sardar Khan Niazi

Pakistan cannot afford to wait for winter to expose the weaknesses in its gas supply system. With colder months approaching and uncertainty surrounding imported LNG supplies, the government must move from reactive crisis management to a credible, transparent and timely winter energy plan.  Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s direction to prepare a comprehensive gas load management plan and take advance measures to secure supplies is therefore timely. The authorities have also indicated that domestic consumers will receive priority from locally produced gas, while imported RLNG will be directed towards power generation and industry. But announcing a plan is only the first step. Its credibility will depend on how early it is finalized, how clearly it is communicated and whether consumers can trust that the announced schedule will actually be followed. The immediate challenge is the uncertain LNG outlook. Gas companies and the Petroleum Division had sought at least 22 cargoes for the December-February period, while current expectations point to substantially fewer cargoes being available. Each spot cargo can also cost around $100 million, making last-minute procurement an expensive proposition for an economy already struggling with external financing pressures. This is precisely why preparation matters. If shortages are inevitable, they should be managed according to a clearly defined hierarchy rather than through emergency decisions taken after pressure has already built up. Households, power plants, export-oriented industries, fertilizer producers and other essential users cannot all be treated identically when supplies are constrained. The government should publish the broad principles of the load-management plan well before winter. Consumers need to know when and where pressure reductions or supply interruptions could occur, what alternatives are available and how complaints will be addressed. Advance notice is particularly important for households that depend on gas for cooking and heating. The proposed public-awareness campaign can play a useful role, but it should go beyond appeals to conserve energy. Consumers should be given practical guidance on efficient heating and cooking, while affordable alternatives to gas should be made accessible. The reported proposal to facilitate financing for electric appliances for water and space heating deserves serious consideration, provided it does not simply shift the burden from gas bills to unaffordable electricity bills. The power sector must also be protected from an unplanned gas squeeze. Recent disruptions in RLNG supplies have already affected electricity generation and contributed to load management. A winter gas strategy that ignores the electricity system would therefore be incomplete. There is a deeper problem, however. Pakistan’s gas difficulties are no longer merely seasonal. The gas sector is carrying circular debt estimated at around Rs3.6 trillion, while the existing pricing structure and cross-subsidies continue to complicate the financial position of the utilities. The winter crisis should consequently be used to accelerate structural reform rather than become another excuse for temporary fixes. Better demand forecasting, reduction of transmission and distribution losses, investment in pipelines, transparent procurement and more targeted subsidies are all necessary if the country is to reduce its vulnerability to international gas-market shocks. The government must also be realistic with the public. If imported supplies are insufficient, promising uninterrupted gas to everyone will only create disappointment later. A transparent prioritization mechanism, announced in advance and applied consistently, would be preferable to arbitrary or politically influenced decisions. Winter arrives every year. What changes is the degree of preparation. Pakistan cannot control geopolitical tensions, international LNG prices or disruptions to major shipping routes. It can, however, improve forecasting, procure strategically, communicate honestly and ensure that scarce gas reaches the sectors where its absence would cause the greatest social and economic damage. The prime minister’s directive provides an opportunity to do precisely that. The test now is whether the government can turn the instruction into a detailed operational plan before temperatures fall and demand rises. A winter gas crisis should be managed before it becomes a crisis — not after the pipes run dry.