By Sardar Khan Niazi

The eventual end of hostilities involving Iran, whenever it comes, will undoubtedly be welcomed across the world. Energy markets will stabilize, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz will regain a measure of normalcy, and governments will breathe easier after weeks of uncertainty. The latest crisis has once again exposed an uncomfortable reality: the global economy remains tethered to a fossil fuel system whose most critical supply routes lie in some of the world’s most volatile regions. For decades, the Strait of Hormuz has symbolized this fragility. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s traded oil passes through the narrow waterway, making it one of the most strategically significant maritime chokepoints.  For countries such as Pakistan, this reality carries important implications. Pakistan remains heavily dependent on imported oil and liquefied natural gas to meet its energy needs. Every major increase in international energy prices widens the import bill, places additional pressure on foreign exchange reserves, weakens the rupee and fuels domestic inflation. The economic consequences are not confined to energy consumers alone; they ripple through transport, manufacturing, agriculture and household budgets. Energy security is no longer simply about securing adequate supplies of oil and gas. It is increasingly about reducing dependence on fuel sources whose availability and price are shaped by geopolitical events beyond national control. Pakistan possesses significant renewable energy potential, particularly in solar and wind power. The rapid growth of distributed solar installations over recent years demonstrates both the commercial viability of renewable technologies and the willingness of consumers to invest when policy signals remain supportive. Greater investment in grid modernization, battery storage, transmission infrastructure and domestic renewable generation would not merely advance climate objectives; it would strengthen economic resilience by reducing exposure to imported fuels. Equally important is the need for policy consistency. Frequent changes in taxation, tariffs and regulatory frameworks create uncertainty that discourages long-term investment in clean energy. Investors require predictability. Consumers require confidence. The transition to a more diversified energy system cannot proceed if policies fluctuate in response to short-term fiscal pressures. None of this suggests that fossil fuels will disappear from Pakistan’s energy mix in the foreseeable future. Oil and natural gas will continue to play a significant role for years to come. However, each new geopolitical crisis strengthens the economic case for accelerating diversification rather than delaying it. History offers ample evidence. The oil embargo of the 1970s, the Gulf wars, the Russia-Ukraine conflict and now the tensions involving Iran have each demonstrated how geopolitical events can reverberate through global energy markets with remarkable speed. While each crisis has differed in its origins, they have all exposed the same structural weakness: excessive dependence on a commodity concentrated in politically unstable regions. The question, therefore, is not whether another fossil fuel shock will occur, but when. If the current conflict gives way to diplomacy, governments should resist the temptation to regard lower oil prices as a return to normal. Stability in energy markets has repeatedly proved temporary. The next disruption may emerge from a different region, take a different form and involve different actors, but its economic consequences are likely to be familiar. For Pakistan, the prudent response lies not in assuming that geopolitical tensions will subside indefinitely, but in recognizing that resilience is built during periods of relative calm. A credible energy strategy should therefore aim not only to secure supplies for today, but also to reduce the country’s vulnerability to the inevitable shocks of tomorrow.