SCO could shape global affairs in the coming decades

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) founded in 2001, has increasingly become a key player in global geopolitics. Its future influence depends on several evolving factors, including its members’ political, economic, and security interests, as well as broader global trends. The SCO has steadily expanded, with the addition of India and Pakistan as full members in 2017, and other countries in Central Asia, as well as dialogue partners, indicating a growing influence in Asia and beyond. What future holds for the SCO in terms of global influence? If the organization continues to grow with potential members like Iran, Belarus, or even countries in the Middle East and Africa, it could enhance its global stature. By including countries from various regions, the SCO could act as a counterbalance to Western-led organizations like NATO or the European Union, especially in Asia and surrounding areas. The SCO’s economic influence could grow as its members deepen trade relations. The group’s economic cooperation is still in its early stages compared to its security cooperation, but this could change as projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and regional infrastructure development continue to evolve. If the SCO is able to improve regional trade and investments, especially with the rise of new financial institutions e.g., the SCO Development Bank or its push for using local currencies, it could become a stronger economic bloc, potentially challenging Western-dominated global financial systems. Security cooperation is one of the SCO’s key pillars, especially in combating terrorism, extremism, and separatism, particularly in Central Asia and the broader Asian region. Given the security concerns in Afghanistan and other neighboring regions, the SCO’s role as a regional security body could grow in importance. As global security dynamics shift, the SCO could become more involved in peacekeeping and crisis response, acting as a potential alternative to Western-dominated security frameworks. The SCO’s influence is likely to grow as a counterweight to Western alliances like NATO and the European Union. Countries within the SCO often hold alternative views on international governance, trade, and security. The increasing rivalry between the West (U.S. and EU) and countries like China and Russia, who are core SCO members, may position the SCO as a major geopolitical bloc. The U.S.’s ongoing pivot to Asia, as well as the rise of China as a global economic power, is likely to amplify the SCO’s relevance in global geopolitics. The SCO could play a role in shaping the future of technological cooperation and governance, especially as digital security, AI, and cyber issues become increasingly important. China’s leadership in digital infrastructure (like 5G) could make the SCO a key player in the global tech race, although there are challenges in aligning members with different technological interests. There are existing tensions within the SCO e.g., the India-Pakistan rivalry, and differing interests of China, Russia, and Central Asia that could hinder deeper integration. These tensions could limit the organization’s potential for broader global influence if not managed effectively. SCO’s ability to challenge Western organizations like the UN, NATO, or the EU may depend on its members overcoming differing national priorities and a cohesive strategy. The SCO could also play a role in promoting regional cultural exchange, education, and people-to-people ties. The SCO is poised to become a more prominent global actor as it expands its economic, political, and security cooperation. However, its rise will depend on overcoming internal differences and strategically positioning itself in a rapidly changing geopolitical environment. If it manages to unite its diverse membership and leverage the growing influence of its major players like China and Russia, the SCO could significantly shape global affairs in the coming decades, offering a competing voice to Western-dominated institutions.