Reports of internal divisions within the Afghan Taliban are cause for concern, particularly as they highlight tensions between the ideological old guard based in Kandahar and the more pragmatic elements of the movement. These power struggles have significant implications not just for Afghanistan but also for its neighbors, including Pakistan, as well as the broader international community. If the Taliban’s rule collapses without a viable alternative, Afghanistan could descend into chaos, fueling another humanitarian crisis and providing opportunities for transnational terrorist groups to flourish.
Recent reports suggest that key Taliban figures, including Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Stanikzai, have either fled or distanced themselves from the leadership due to growing dissatisfaction. Mr. Stanikzai, who has reportedly been critical of Taliban supreme leader Mullah Hibatullah Akhundzada’s harsh policies—especially concerning girls’ education—allegedly left Afghanistan in January. However, Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid has dismissed these claims, stating that Mr. Stanikzai was simply visiting family in the UAE and that the ‘Islamic Emirate’ remains united despite varying opinions within the ranks.
Despite these assurances, Afghanistan’s history suggests that factional and ideological disputes, if left unchecked, can lead to disastrous consequences. The collapse of the Najibullah government in 1992 was followed by a brutal civil war among mujahideen factions, eventually paving the way for the Taliban’s first rise to power. A repeat of such events would have dire consequences for the Afghan people, exacerbating their already dire humanitarian situation. Moreover, the emergence of groups like IS-K and the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) could further destabilize the region, particularly posing a serious security threat to Pakistan.
The Taliban’s current approach to governance, characterized by strict ideological rigidity and international isolation, is unsustainable. Mullah Akhundzada’s refusal to accommodate moderate voices within his own movement is a dangerous miscalculation. If Afghanistan remains cut off from the world due to its regressive policies—particularly regarding women’s rights and political freedoms—domestic unrest will only intensify. Without meaningful reforms, the Taliban risk losing control not through external military intervention, as happened in 2001, but through an internal rebellion.
While expecting the Taliban to embrace democracy may be unrealistic, there is a pressing need for them to engage in meaningful political dialogue and show flexibility. Afghanistan’s future cannot be dictated solely by ideology. A more inclusive approach—one that considers the concerns of various ethnic, tribal, and political factions—must be adopted to ensure long-term stability.
The Taliban’s downfall in 2001 was a result of their failure to sever ties with Al Qaeda. This time, if the leadership refuses to listen to its own ranks and continues on a path of rigid authoritarianism, the collapse may come from within. The international community and Afghanistan’s neighbors must closely monitor the evolving situation, as any instability in Kabul will have far-reaching consequences across the region.