Pakistan cannot afford so many simultaneous conflicts

Pakistan’s security and political landscape paints a very complex picture. A blend of strategic calculations, reactive policies, and multifaceted conflicts seems to be testing the nation’s resilience. The multiple ongoing conflicts, the internal instability, and the complicated relations with neighboring countries particularly Afghanistan suggest more of a reactive, sometimes ad hoc approach, where decisions are often made based on immediate threats rather than a unified, long-term vision. Given the continuous escalation, particularly with the TTP, BLA, and the growing pressure from domestic political instability, it is difficult to argue that the end goal is conflict resolution. On paper, Pakistan is a nuclear power, but it faces serious domestic and external challenges that threaten its stability. Managing multiple fronts internal insurgencies, political instability, and deteriorating regional relations puts immense pressure on its resources. Internal conflicts like the TTP insurgency, along with issues in Baluchistan, create a significant burden on the state, while the strained ties with Afghanistan further complicate diplomatic efforts. The relationship with Afghanistan, particularly the Taliban’s refusal to crack down on the TTP, is a classic example of the proxy warfare dilemma. Afghanistan is not willing to take action against the TTP, which remains one of the most significant threats to Pakistan. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s strategy of applying pressure through border security measures, harsh visa policies, and trade restrictions has been unsuccessful in curbing terrorism. The long-term solution here might be a more nuanced approach perhaps involving negotiations with both the Taliban and elements of the TTP that are open to peace while ramping up pressure on the irreconcilable elements. The hardline stance against the Taliban could make sense in the short term, but in the longer term, it is likely to push Afghanistan into more antagonistic positions. Moreover, it will not address the root cause of Pakistan’s insecurity, the TTP’s presence in Afghanistan. Punitive measures on refugees, trade, and visa policies are counterproductive in the sense that they create broader resentment among the Afghan population and undermine any goodwill that could exist between the two nations. Humanitarian concerns around refugees, many of whom have been living in Pakistan for decades, also need to be taken into the decision-making. Over time, any punitive step such as restricting trade cannot resolve the TTP issue but might contribute to even greater regional alienation. From an existential standpoint, it is difficult to prioritize one threat over another. While the TTP presents a direct threat to Pakistan’s security, the political instability surrounding political parties adds a layer of domestic chaos. The Baloch insurgency led by groups like the BLA and BLF is a long-standing issue that taps into grievances related to autonomy, governance, and resource allocation. The tension between these groups points to a larger issue of governance and national cohesion. If the central government cannot address the legitimate grievances of these ethnic and political factions, the risks of further destabilization remain high. In addition to counter-terrorism measures, Pakistan will need a more effective strategy of political reconciliation to address the root causes of these tensions. Pakistan’s approach should ideally be a blend of soft and hard power, one that focuses on intelligence-led operations and counter-terrorism, while also offering political solutions and dialogue to bring insurgent factions to the negotiating table. By narrowing the space for TTP in Afghanistan, alongside a strategy to win over those willing to negotiate, Pakistan might be able to reduce significantly the threat over time. At the same time, it needs to address the underlying socio-political issues in Baluchistan, FATA, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa through governance reforms, resource allocation, and ensuring political inclusion. The situation demands a holistic policy that combines military action, diplomacy, political reconciliation, and long-term societal integration.