Asif Mahmood

The explosion outside the Islamabad courthouse has added a dangerous new layer to an already fragile regional security picture. It arrived at a moment when Pakistan and Afghanistan had already failed to revive meaningful dialogue. In that vacuum of diplomacy accusations and counter accusations multiply. The Pakistani government has publicly pointed the finger at India and its proxies sheltered in Afghanistan. Whether those claims are proven in a court of law or on the battlefield they reflect a bitter reality. The consequences of a breakdown between two Muslim neighbours are plain and grim. No one except a third party with selfish designs stands to gain.

Violence inside Pakistan is not simply a law and order problem. It is a symptom of a politicised regional contest in which rival capitals seek advantage by stoking instability across borders. For Islamabad the immediate instinct must be twofold. First, secure the capital and ensure that civilians and the judiciary can go about their work without fear. Second, pursue accountability through intelligence and diplomacy. Silence is not an option. Neither is reflexive escalation that hands the narrative to those who profit from war.

It should be emphasised that deteriorating ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan will not enrich either society. Trade will suffer. People to people links will fray. Cross border cooperation against violent actors will weaken. The net beneficiary in such a scenario will almost certainly be New Delhi. A divided neighbourhood plays into a strategy that seeks to isolate Pakistan and to turn Afghanistan into a theatre for proxy competition. That is why it is in the strategic interest of both Islamabad and Kabul to resist the logic of retaliation and to revive channels of communication even if the interlocutors are few and imperfect.

Responsibility also lies with international partners who claim to favour regional stability. They must not turn a blind eye to evidence that outside actors are exploiting fissures. Constructive engagement means insisting on transparency in investigations, on denying sanctuaries to violent groups, and on supporting Pakistani capacity to protect its citizens without imposing solutions that ignore local realities.

Ultimately Pakistan cannot be expected to tolerate repeated provocations. It will respond to protect its people and its institutions. The only durable insurance against chaos is renewed diplomacy that restores at least minimal trust between Islamabad and Kabul. Anything less hands victory to India who profits from perpetual conflict.