Asif Mahmood
Pakistan on the one hand is itself a victim of terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, and the safe havens available to militant groups inside Afghanistan have become a serious threat to Pakistan’s security. Yet at the same time an absurd narrative is being constructed against Pakistan claiming that it is supporting and using certain militant groups inside Afghanistan. The absurdity of this claim becomes even more apparent when those making the allegation argue that Pakistan is doing so in order to block Chinese investment in Afghanistan.
The debate on South Asian security often favors flashy claims over facts. Analysts frequently point fingers at intelligence agencies, militant networks, and regional intrigue, presenting dramatic narratives that grab attention but rarely hold up under scrutiny. One recurring allegation is that Pakistan’s intelligence service manipulates militant groups in Afghanistan while undermining Chinese interests. Provocative though it may be, provocation is not proof.
Afghanistan’s security situation since 2021 is a labyrinth of competing actors. Local insurgents, transnational jihadist networks, and regional intelligence services operate in overlapping spaces. Alliances shift rapidly, and information is scarce. In this environment, isolated incidents or unverified reports are easily twisted into sweeping geopolitical claims. Jumping to conclusions from thin evidence turns analysis into guesswork.
Take the claim that a weapons shipment crossed from Pakistan into Afghanistan to supply militants in the Wakhan Corridor. This story has circulated as proof of Pakistani interference, but evidence is thin. No credible documentation shows the shipment’s origin, route, or intended recipients. Even the weapons described—mostly short-range submachine guns and pistols—do not match typical militant arsenals. Afghan insurgents usually rely on assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades, explosives, and improvised devices. The mismatch makes the accusation improbable.
Another persistent claim is that Pakistan wants to undermine Chinese investment in Afghanistan to maintain leverage over Beijing. This theory clashes with economic reality. Pakistan’s long-term strategy depends on Chinese investment, most notably through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Islamabad has long advocated expanding regional connectivity linking China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. Stability in Afghanistan is not a threat; it is essential for trade and infrastructure development.
Similarly unfounded is the allegation that Pakistan’s intelligence supports the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) to hurt Chinese interests. In fact, Pakistani authorities arrested Sharifullah, the mastermind behind the 2021 Abbey Gate bombing at Kabul airport, which killed 13 U.S. service members. When he was captured in March 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly praised Pakistan’s counterterrorism efforts. This cooperation clearly disproves claims of collusion with ISKP.
Balochistan illustrates the dangers of oversimplification. The province is home to nationalist insurgents, sectarian groups, criminal networks, and extremist actors, each with distinct motives and operations. Claims that terrorist groups systematically target Baloch separatists remain unverified. Without reliable data, such assertions are speculative at best.
The evolving security situation in Afghanistan and the broader region demands clear-eyed, fact-based scrutiny. Conspiracy-driven stories and simplified proxy warfare narratives may attract headlines, but they obscure the real dynamics shaping regional stability. Pakistan has made tremendous sacrifices in the fight against terrorism. These sacrifices cannot be undermined by false and baseless propaganda.