By Sardar Khan Niazi

Political currents always shape the global economy, but few recent movements have disrupted established norms as profoundly as Trumpism. More than a personality-driven phenomenon, Trumpism represents a shift toward economic nationalism, unilateralism and a deep skepticism of multilateral institutions. Its ripple effects have extended far beyond the United States, contributing to heightened uncertainty in global markets and complicating an already fragile international order. At the heart of Trumpism lies the doctrine of America First. In practice, this translated into protectionist trade policies, withdrawal from international agreements and the aggressive use of tariffs as a bargaining tool. The US-China trade war, initiated through sweeping tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of goods, unsettled global supply chains that had evolved over decades. Businesses accustomed to predictable rules suddenly faced volatile trade barriers, retaliatory measures and regulatory ambiguity. Investment decisions were delayed, manufacturing costs rose and market volatility intensified. The retreat from multilateralism further amplified uncertainty. The United States’ withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), threats to exit the World Trade Organization (WTO) framework and strained relations with traditional allies signaled a diminished commitment to the rules-based trading system. For smaller and emerging economies — many of which rely on stable trade regimes — this unpredictability complicated long-term economic planning. When major powers appear willing to sidestep established rules, confidence in global governance mechanisms weakens. Financial markets, highly sensitive to political signals, reacted accordingly. Policy pronouncements often arrived via social media, sometimes contradicting official channels. Such communication styles blurred the line between strategy and improvisation, creating confusion for investors. Currency fluctuations and stock market swings frequently followed abrupt announcements on tariffs or sanctions. While markets occasionally rebounded on news of temporary truces, the broader climate of unpredictability persisted. Beyond trade, Trumpism reshaped global investment flows. Immigration restrictions and tightened visa regimes affected the movement of skilled labor, particularly in technology and research sectors. For multinational corporations, uncertainty about regulatory frameworks and diplomatic relations made cross-border expansion riskier. Countries that had long depended on access to the US market began exploring alternative partnerships, accelerating a fragmentation of the global economic landscape. Energy markets, too, felt the impact. Although domestic energy production surged under deregulation policies, shifting stances on climate accords and sanctions on oil-producing states added volatility to global supply calculations. The withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement signaled to some investors a reduced US commitment to coordinated climate action, affecting long-term green investment strategies worldwide. Trumpism injected unpredictability into the world’s largest economy and its foreign policy orientation. When the anchor of the global system appears unstable, smaller economies inevitably feel the tremors. For developing countries such as Pakistan, the implications are complex. On one hand, trade diversions created by US-China tensions opened limited opportunities for alternative exporters. On the other, broader instability reduced global demand, tightened financial conditions and complicated external financing prospects. In an interconnected world, policy shocks in Washington reverberate across continents. The longer-term consequence of Trumpism may be the normalization of economic nationalism. Even beyond one administration, the precedent of tariffs as strategic leverage and skepticism toward multilateral institutions has shifted the policy debate within the United States itself. Allies and competitors alike must now factor in the possibility that US trade and foreign policy could swing sharply with electoral cycles. Ultimately, global economic stability rests on predictability, transparency and cooperation. When major powers prioritize short-term tactical gains over long-term institutional trust, uncertainty becomes the defining feature of the system. As nations navigate this unsettled terrain, the lesson is clear: durable prosperity depends less on rhetorical assertions of sovereignty and more on credible commitments to shared rules. Without that foundation, uncertainty will remain the global economy’s most persistent companion.