By Sardar Khan Niazi

There are moments in the history of nations when difficult choices, long deferred, arrive at the doorstep demanding clarity. For Pakistan and Afghanistan, that moment has come. The trajectory of their relationship — shaped by geography, conflict, economic interdependence and persistent mistrust — now stands at a decisive turning point. Whether this is seized for course correction or allowed to drift into deeper estrangement will shape regional stability for decades.  For years, Islamabad and Kabul have relied on a formula of uneasy coexistence: heavy rhetoric punctuated by half-hearted cooperation; symbolic gestures masking real fractures; and invocations of “brotherly ties” even as grievances multiplied. Today, that formula has collapsed. Rising security threats emanating from Afghan soil, expanding militant sanctuaries, and the Taliban government’s reluctance — or inability — to act against groups targeting Pakistan have pushed relations to their most brittle point since August 2021. Yet the present rupture is not solely a function of security concerns. It reflects deeper structural disconnects. Pakistan assumed that ideological affinity with the Taliban would translate into strategic alignment. The Taliban, meanwhile, view Pakistani pressure as encroachment upon their sovereignty and political autonomy. These divergent lenses have produced an impasse: Pakistan demands action; the Taliban claim compliance but resist accountability. The result is a stalemate both perilous and unsustainable. Still, this crisis presents a rare opportunity to rebuild the relationship on more realistic foundations. Three domains stand out as essential. First, security cooperation must move beyond statements to verifiable mechanisms. Pakistan’s concerns about cross-border militancy are not imaginary; nor can Kabul be expected to surrender autonomy under threat. What is needed is a mutually agreed framework — intelligence-sharing, border coordination and monitoring — that treats security as a shared responsibility. Second, economic interdependence should be used as a stabilizing force. Afghanistan’s economy, strangled by isolation, desperately needs predictable access and trade. Pakistan’s western corridors, meanwhile, remain under-utilized. A structured revival of transit trade, clear customs regimes and functioning border markets can create incentives for stability on both sides. The alternative — sporadic border closures and reactive restrictions — only breeds resentment. Third, diplomacy must reclaim center stage. Public blame games may satisfy domestic audiences, but they corrode trust. Quiet, sustained diplomatic engagement — insulated from theatrics — is essential if the relationship is to move out of crisis mode. Regional actors can assist, but cannot substitute for direct Pakistan–Afghanistan engagement. Ultimately, the onus now lies with the Afghan Taliban to demonstrate that they are willing — and able — to act as a responsible governing authority. Pakistan’s expectations are neither radical nor unprecedented; they are the minimum any neighboring state would demand. Kabul’s insistence on sovereignty rings hollow if it cannot ensure its territory is not used to wage violence across the border. The Taliban leadership must recognize that inaction carries consequences, not only for bilateral relations but also for Afghanistan’s own quest for legitimacy and economic revival. Islamabad, for its part, cannot indefinitely absorb the political, security and economic costs of a one-sided relationship. The moment of ambiguity has passed. If the Taliban wish to preserve even the semblance of a constructive partnership, the responsibility to deliver meaningful, verifiable security assurances rests squarely with them. The ball, unmistakably, is now in the Taliban’s court.