The Pakistan Meteorological Department’s latest seasonal outlook for winter 2025–26 arrives as a quiet correction to earlier public perceptions. While chatter across media and social platforms had suggested an exceptionally cold winter, the PMD now confirms a more familiar pattern: normal seasonal temperatures, occasional cold waves, and crucially drier conditions than average. Though this may ease fears of extreme cold, it poses deeper concerns for agriculture, air quality, and water security that demand attention rather than complacency.
At the centre of this outlook is the weak influence of La Niña, a global climatic phenomenon often associated with altered rainfall and temperature patterns. As Chief Meteorologist Dr. Afzaal noted, La Niña remains strong globally but comparatively weak in Pakistan, making it unlikely to trigger severe winter temperatures. Instead, its more probable effect is suppressed rainfall a trend with implications far beyond meteorology.
From November through January, Pakistan is expected to receive fewer weather systems and reduced precipitation, especially in northern Punjab, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, and Gilgit-Baltistan. Southern parts of the country may fare slightly better with near-normal rainfall, but the broader pattern remains dry. The scarcity of early-season rainfall, once again, exposes the fragility of Pakistan’s rainfed agriculture, a sector that sustains millions but remains extremely vulnerable to climatic shifts.
Director of the Agromet Centre, has issued a timely caution: prolonged dry spells could weaken soil moisture and limit the growth of Rabi crops, most notably wheat a staple that forms the backbone of national food security. For rainfed regions, where irrigation infrastructure is minimal, this season’s dryness could delay germination, reduce tillering, and ultimately depress yields. In more vulnerable districts, the threat of partial crop failure looms.
The livestock sector, too, may bear the brunt of reduced fodder availability as natural grazing grounds dry earlier than expected. Without strategic support such as supplemental feed, managed irrigation, and protection of frost-sensitive crops economic burden on farmers could intensify.
Beyond agriculture, the spectre of dense fog and worsening smog once again hangs over the populous plains of Punjab and parts of Sindh. Drier air, stable atmospheric conditions, and delayed rainfall create ideal circumstances for pollutants to accumulate. This means reduced visibility, increased respiratory illnesses, and a further strain on public health challenges that have become disturbingly routine in winter.
Yet, despite these concerns, the PMD stresses that its forecast remains probabilistic. Weather patterns may shift, especially after January when Western Disturbances are expected to become more active, bringing improved rainfall and snowfall to the northern regions. Even so, the underlying message is clear, Pakistan cannot treat “normal” winter forecasts as reassurance when climate vulnerability continues to deepen.
This season should be viewed not just as a meteorological event but as a reminder of the need for climate preparedness. Farmers must adopt adaptive practices, policymakers must prioritize water management, and provincial governments must plan for smog mitigation well before conditions worsen.

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