If we analyze the various aspects of this war, we must first remember that Iran had no choice but to attack Israel. Israel has been provoking Iran in multiple ways for a long time. They have carried out several secret attacks inside Iran.
Iran has accused Israel of killing several Iranian nuclear scientists. In addition, several strategic installations in Iran saw attacks in Iraq and Syria. The United States has also attacked these places. That is why Iran counterattacked. It is not as if Iran preemptively attacked.
However, this time the situation has changed a lot. Israel’s greatest failure has so far been to engage the United States directly in this war, despite many efforts. The US has refused to join the war or attack Iran if it pledges to defend Israel.
Perhaps this is the reason why this war may not escalate. It means that a major war is probably not going to happen. 20 years ago, the United States and Israel would have captured Iran together. Iran could not survive a joint attack by the United States and Israel.
Two things could keep the US out of this war. Its allies, including the United States, are now tired of dragging out long wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Syria. The US could not benefit from the war in Ukraine.
Vast areas of Ukraine have been lost to Russia. Russia suffered a lot of damage, and many Russian generals were killed, even though this news was in the Western media, Ukraine could not recover the lost land. This proves that the United States is not in a very advantageous position.
Moreover, Europe in particular cannot bear the burden of another major conflict. Wherever the war broke out, refugees flocked to all of Europe. Together with Syria and Ukraine, about 3 million refugees are staying in Germany alone. In this situation, when the Iran-Israel war starts, refugees from both countries will begin their journey towards Europe.
Not only these two countries; but Refugees from their neighboring countries will also join this journey. So before starting the war, many calculations must be considered. If for some reason a full-scale war breaks out, everyone will suffer. In this situation, Europe’s support for war may not be the same as before.
On the contrary, Iran is getting support from Russia and China. Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi. China has suggested a peaceful solution to the crisis, saying Iran can handle the situation alone. In addition, the support of Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq, and Turkey will match for Iran.
Some say an Iranian attack would benefit Benjamin Netanyahu. He is already not at ease. There are constant protests in Israel. The economic condition is not very good. A new war could save Netanyahu’s politics. There is also the opposite opinion. Attacks by Hamas or Iran increase Israel’s military spending. Israel had to spend 800 million pounds in one night to prevent hundreds of missiles and drone attacks from Iran. This is the information of the British media Guardian.
In this situation, the support of Europe, distant countries USA and Saudi, Jordan, and Egypt of tacit consent may not be convenient for Israel. Naturally, the impact of additional military spending will hurt the economy as a whole. If one can prove that Israel is neither impenetrable nor invincible, the fear of insecurity among citizens in Israel will increase. Amid economic insecurity, Israel’s situation will be even more fragile.
Most citizens of Israel are immigrants. They came from different countries. Among them, the rate of leaving Israel is increasing. Insecurity will further increase their rate of emigration. The exodus and sense of insecurity could be detrimental to Netanyahu’s politics.
