While the guns may have fallen silent, the threat of conflict between India and Pakistan remains potent — now flowing through the veins of South Asia’s rivers. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s recent remarks in Rajasthan, where he declared that Pakistan would no longer have access to “Indian rivers,” mark a dangerous shift in New Delhi’s strategy. By unilaterally holding the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) in abeyance and threatening to sever Pakistan’s rightful access to transboundary waters, India is not just provoking regional instability — it is also violating international law.
The IWT, brokered in 1960 under the auspices of the World Bank, is a legally binding agreement. It has survived wars and diplomatic deadlocks, precisely because it is rooted in the principle of mutual cooperation. India’s attempt to unilaterally abandon or alter the treaty is not only legally indefensible but potentially catastrophic. Experts rightly warn that any such move could be considered an act of war.
Mr Modi’s bellicose rhetoric — suggesting Pakistan’s economy will “pay” for terrorism — appears aimed more at a domestic political audience than a serious policy shift. However, the consequences of these words go far beyond political posturing. Weaponising water — a shared, life-sustaining resource — sets a perilous precedent in an already fragile region. Tinkering with river flows, whether by blocking or releasing water without warning, violates the Geneva Conventions and undermines global efforts to promote sustainable, peaceful transboundary cooperation, such as those outlined in UN Sustainable Development Goal 6.5.
Pakistan, as the lower riparian, has consistently adhered to the terms of the IWT and holds the moral high ground. It has raised concerns about Indian actions — such as blocking Chenab waters — that preview a broader pattern of water manipulation. While experts caution that large-scale diversions will take time, Pakistan cannot afford complacency. If India continues down this path, the long-term consequences could include severe water shortages, agricultural disruption, and a heightened state of perpetual hostility in South Asia.
In this context, Pakistan’s political leadership must rise above party lines to address the growing threat. As highlighted in the Senate, safeguarding water rights must become a national priority. The prime minister and foreign representatives must proactively engage the international community, informing global partners of India’s violations and the destabilising impact these actions could have on regional peace.
Water must never be used as a weapon. If India continues on this course, it risks igniting a conflict whose fallout would extend far beyond its borders. The world must take notice — and act before it is too late.
