By Muhammad Saeed
Foundation for kicking off the Arab Spring was laid on December 17, 2010 with the incident when Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire in a small town of Tunisia. Soon after this fateful incident, several countries across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region were engulfed in mass protests and agitations resulting into not only regime change but actually beginning of a definitive instability, insecurity and volatility in the whole area with spill over potentials to other areas previously not taken into account. The transnational diffusion of these protests was as quick as it was powerful. During the early days of the Arab Spring, the rapid diffusion of protests generated intense hype. Rarely has the world witnessed a protest movement that swept across state borders so rapidly. Immediate consequences oozing out from the idea of regime change lead to the spectacular chaos, factually stage managed by the global powers lead by the US, took its toll within one year as four previously impregnable MENA leaders were not only toppled but eliminated once for all.
This instability on one hand has full potentials of uninterrupted anarchy in MENA but also is spreading devastatingly into the European countries and more possibly into Australia and Newzeland that are still enjoying absence of ISIL or DAISH. Regrettably majority of significant countries of European region being knitted into different political, economic and military entities like EU, EC, NATO and many more, have pledged solidarity with America which has decided to remain busy in operation enduring freedom for an indefinite period. A sort of lax response from France to give its share disproportionately in the adventures and prime interests of the US, has literally escorted France into the Paris carnage of November 13, 2015. European countries must have so far realized that the US is unlikely to ignore any future laxity that hurts American interests, on the part of any single European country. Factually safety, stability and progress of each European country engaged with the US either politically, economically or militarily, is subservient to the whims of global power.
We are at the door steps of five year anniversary falling on December 17 in 2015 while experiencing invincible chaos and anarchy in MENA. Syria has become a hard nut to crack with the tool of NATO, which has already failed in the region as well as in Afghanistan. Therefore global leader has now started to solicit for a global coalition in an effort to accomplish a hell of springs in countries those do not behave as per desires of America. During five years period of commencement of Arab Spring, regime of Bashar-ul-Assad could not be diluted with brute force but has been devastated with the orchestration of ISIL and Syrian opposition forces which have been militarily empowered by the American lead West. In a new situation Turkey has been brought into the fore to engage Russia, the old friend of the US that made Soviet Union disintegrated possible with the tested tool of religiously motivated people. This time Russian leadership of Vladimir Putin is more dynamic than the past and is unlikely to be deterred with a proxy war.
As foreign fighters have spilled into Iraq and Syria, the ISIL franchise has spilled out across the region. Groups in ten MENA states have pledged allegiance to ISIL and ISIL has staged lethal attacks in ten MENA states, not to mention its attacks beyond the region. The growth of ISIL’s affiliate groups in MENA guarantees that the ISIL crisis is one with which the entire region is forced to struggle. MENA countries have been consequently brought together while simultaneously triggering four active civil wars (Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen) resulting into stepping up of intervention by external governments with a military hand, either through direct intervention or indirect support to their proxies. Although each of the four civil wars originated in domestic problems and strife, it was not long before they became proxy wars for other regional and international powers. As the anniversary season for the Arab Spring nears, there should be undoubtedly a debate in the West about its legacy, especially how long will the violent tumult last? And which more countries will be haunted in future, especially in Europe?. As we gaze into the crystal ball and ponder what the next five years have in store, it will behoove us to think of the Europe that will feel the brunt.
Irrespective of the manner of governments in central Asia, South East Asia, and Far East or across Africa, the threat of the Islamic ideology has been orchestrated as the single most concern everywhere. From Boko Haram to Ahrar-ul-Hind and Jundullah to IS or any other groups surely in the process of creation, are hence the viable instruments that permits the West and Americans to profusely instill fear, dissension, deterrence, subversion, stain and carry out sustained propaganda against desired target country at suitable time, place and environment.
In such a scenario, the rapidity of proliferation of extremist entities as well as lone wolves has tremendously increased in the West including America; shooting in San Bernardino that killed at least 14, is a tantalizing evidence. A critical appreciation of ensuing environment hence reveals that the region, specifically Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, selected for proliferation of extremist groups is, taking its toll not only in these countries but engulfing West and the US too.