By Sardar Khan Niazi
Russia-Ukraine Conflict has entered its second calendar year by marking 330 days with no sign of any pause and compromise as hostility is fueling relentlessly. No direct or indirect diplomacy exists between the parties so far. The highly destructive war maneuvers are causing irreparable losses to both nations.
According to European and U.S. military estimates, Russia and Ukraine have each lost at least 100,000 soldiers. An estimated 40,000 Ukrainian civilians have also died. The Ukrainian economy is in tatters, fully dependent on the West for a lifeline.
Europe is in the grips of an economic crisis. Britain, France, Germany, and Spain are all seeing labor unrest and waves of protests as wages fail to keep up with the precipitous rise in the cost of living. The skyrocketing cost of energy has forced industries across the continent to shut down or suspend production,
Washington’s rolling out of its Inflation Reduction Act has alarmed EU officials, who fear that businesses will shift production to the United States, leading to the deindustrialization of Europe’s major economies. The continent could see a consequent rise in inequality, populism, and political unrest as seen in the UK and the United States.
These developments could create rifts in the transatlantic relationship, particularly as the United States simultaneously pressures the EU to follow its lead in distancing itself from China economically, which the EU cannot afford.
Americans are also struggling with inflation, which, although not as sharp as Europe’s, is causing people to increasingly question their government’s level of support for Ukraine if that means paying more for food and gas.
According to a poll conducted in December by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, 47 percent of Americans believe Washington should urge Kyiv to settle for peace as soon as possible, even if Ukraine would lose territory.
Time may very well be on Putin’s side, particularly as Russia has three times the workforce as Ukraine and a population accustomed to riding out tough economic times, unlike much of the Western world.
Therefore, arming Ukraine with offensive weapons is highly aggressive, as this reckless approach would lead to a negative outcome. The Biden administration appears to agree with this logic.
Based on the negative consequences of a protracted conflict illustrated above, it is within the American interest to end this war. Rather than doing so by dramatically escalating the war, it needs to pair its military assistance with real moves toward a peace settlement in Ukraine.
The United States should explore all possibilities to initiate talks and should be investing far more in a diplomatic approach. The United States is in the position to take on this role as the main provider of Ukrainian financial and military support. People’s lives and livelihoods depend on it, as does the future of European security.
The aggregate assistance of the NATO countries has not helped Kiyv’s defense. The Americans and their closest allies now want to drag Germany into a conflict with Russia.The German Chancellor is rightly hesitant that such action might trigger a wider conflict that engulfs Berlin and become disastrous eventually.
The ongoing economic conditions of the nations in different parts of the world dictate that the Ukrainian war must end immediately. Apart from the high cost in human, economic, and political terms, there is a real danger the war may turn into a nuclear one.
Kremlin has the largest nuclear arsenal at its disposal. Chief Spokesman for the Kremlin Dmitri Peskov did not rule out the use of nuclear weapons, should the country face an existential threat. Vladimir Putin himself has repeatedly cautioned that any attack on Russia could provoke a nuclear response. Thus, risk avoidance is indispensable.
