By Zahir Iqbal
The turbulent political transition in Afghanistan took place simultaneously with the security / military transition in Afghanistan. The difficult assignment of holding peaceful elections in Afghanistan with having the prior tensions between the then leadership of Hamid Karzai and US administration remained very glaring and contagious issues. During the year 2012, when the apparent withdrawal strategy and security scenario envisaged for 2014 in Afghanistan was revealed by the responsible US official, a lot of anxiety was found among the Afghan and their leaders ,as matters were not yet settled with Taliban and there was no sustainable economy to support the basic security structure. it was the time when mot of the afghans were expecting the another course of dark age broadly controlled by Taliban, fearing the wide spread of human rights and overall there was a an atmosphere of helplessness and despair . However, due to the intervention of the hearable voices the issue could be tackled by foreseeing and depicting the same dark scenario for Afghanistan as it got created after the Russian withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan.
The US had almost abandoned the Afghans letting the rule of jungle to prevail and the most powerful and fresh of all, prevailed and dominated the afghan canvas with the dark shadows of Taliban. Some may direr with the pessimistic narration of Taliban as they did carry out quite tremendous jobs during their rule, but history is full of such illusive thoughts of the regimes which portrayed their soft image but later on the true face got unveiled while carrying out atrocities against humanity. Same remained the case, when opponents were massacred and women and children were treated like animals. It was probably the time when Nature reversed the course and the Taliban regime got removed by more brutal and lethal creed and breed of humans.
Hence ,the early disclosure of withdrawal plan of US/NATO troops was frightfully taken by the Afghan general public but for Taliban it was a moment of relief and they took it as a mark of their success. It also confirmed the phrase generally used to be spelled out by Taliban “Although foreigner had watches, but we (Taliban) have the time”. It was indeed the true narration of Taliban strategy, which possibly got broadly ignored by the US/NATO troops in Afghanistan while tackling Taliban and their affiliates.
Economy experts indicated that probably it was the prominent time when Afghan economy started slowing down, and business related community started holding back their fortunes until the clarity of envisaged strategy shape up for final decisions. A lot of questions were floating regarding what would happen in 2014 and beyond.
Hence the simultaneous transition of political and security overshadowed the most important transition of economy, which could have help and support the both transitions in Afghanistan. A lot of discussion among the local and international think tanks took place to figure out the implications of withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan.
As most of the afghans were thinking that imagining about the final outcome of the scenario where previously 140,000 foreign troops were helping and protecting them in support of security and stability in Afghanistan and later on it would be done by about 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers. Hence, it was gauged that the burden of security of a country, that is too fragile to stand at its own resources is being shifted very quickly and without any future plan for sustaining the liberty and holding the held terrains.
The Afghan state continues to be dependent on increasingly fickle foreign support for funding large parts of its budget, including all of its military expenditures. Its economic prospects have significantly worsened compared to three years ago and remain dim for the foreseeable future. The promise of its mineral resources funding the Afghan state and the development of the country has been slow to materialize.
The Taliban insurgency is more than entrenched; it has engaged in some of the most intense fighting since 2001. Insecurity has increased in various degrees across the country, and 2015 is well on its way to mark the bloodiest year of the decade and a half. As per the Afghanistan’s Independent Human Rights Commission (AIHRC) the number of Afghan civilian casualties has escalated to almost 30 percent over the past six months. Besides, the Afghan security forces are challenged on the battlefield and so far, suffering from integration problems.
Experts argue that the Afghanistan’s fragile economy is directly and indirectly linked with the political deadlock, governance paralysis, and security uncertainties. The domestic economic performance of Afghanistan during 2013 and 2014 were also not even up to the expected mark, with massive economic shrinkage, large unemployment, capital flight, taxes & custom collections and a chronic as well as acute fiscal crisis exponentially deteriorated the economic outlook of the country. Afghanistan’s GDP growth was recorded as 9 percent in 2012 which shrunk to 3.7 percent in 2013 and remained only 2 percent in 2014. Afghanistan’s domestic revenues also declined from a peak of 11.6 percent in 2011/12 to 9.7 percent in 2013 and continued to drop in 2014
There is also a pessimistic view prevailing that; whenever the postponed talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban would resume, it would likely to last for years. However, governance in Afghanistan cannot persist in the condition of paralysis and continued surrenders of Security Forces in the face of Taliban successes. Delivery of governance and related improvements is crucial for the sustainability of the Afghan State and the basic political dispensation in the country.
Better governance buys time, opens up political space for the negotiations, and strengthens the government’s hand in gaining the crucial public support. Even a negotiated deal could not address the issue of inadequate governance for augmenting the peace and prosperity in Afghanistan, hence; parallel to any efforts for stabilizing Afghanistan; the issue of governance and its practical impact at the grass root level, must be ensured by the Afghan government for bringing the sustainability to the adopted policies and overall stability in Afghanistan and the region.