By Nazim Uddin
Edward Littwak introduced the term “geoeconomics” back in the 1990s when from the ashes of the Soviet Union emerged the New World Order to embolden the proposition that military confrontations would subside if countries followed “Neoliberal ideals”. He maintained that the basic concept of war and conflict was encompassed by “political consideration” and “pervades the upkeep of peace as much as the making of war.”
Since the ascent of the US–and rather before that–many countries treasured the “potential of geo-economics” against “geostrategic” aspects excluding exceptions. Pakistan has been one such exception. Immersed in both internal and external conflicts, it has never been able to right the wrong since the bloody dismemberment of East Pakistan in 1971. The unending wars, hemming in of democratic transition, and breathtaking mismanagement have left the subsequent regimes with no option but to find strategic relevance rather than “economic interdependence”. It then comes as no surprise that not only have we been unable to find a reliable friend, but a functional economy and enviable future seem a dream too.
The times should change now for the better. Playing the easy ball, Pakistan had been entangled between the deep sea and hard rock. From economy to politics, education to infrastructure, and peace to stability everything seemed a pipe dream following the path of geostrategy. Add to this “the rising importance of India,” Pakistan was teetering on the brink, facing the abyss. It was true then, but now things seem to be changing.
Various factors have forced Pakistan to change its attitude. Firstly, global dynamics have altered. Respect and survival can only be assured when economic health is productive. Second, the economic crunch poses an existential crisis for it. Third, the growing dislike of the incumbent government is increasing by leaps and bounds. Fourth, there are a host of fault lines emanating from the strategic blunders committed over the years. The list goes on. Ergo, in this light, this paradigm shift was the need of the hours.
The opportunities of becoming a geoeconomic destination lie before Pakistan is manifold. The common perception as underlined by Fred Burton of being an “unreliable country” can be removed. In other words, when economic engagement deepens, there remains less room for shenanigans. Resultantly, the checkered nexus of Pakistan with the US and India may see a balanced, predictable, and mutually beneficial relationship at the end of the tunnel, of course, in a long run. Economic interdependence will, moreover, spark constructive ways to see the decade-long conflicts, which impede developments.
Another fruit of this changed disposition comes from the potential well-being of people. For decades, the people of Pakistan have seen no respite from various endemic issues. Once trade gets ground, the economy will find momentum. With poverty placed in the backseat, illiteracy, violence, intolerance and deeply entrenched conservatism can be medicined. Indeed, things will not depict a rosy picture for everything or overnight, yet at least some of the avoidable issues can be cured if sane ideas prevail.
It is obvious that those countries, which are on top of the spectrum, are heavily indulged in trade, cooperation, interdependency, and mutual relations. It is a route that ushers in a host of other opportunities subsequently opening doors for others to invest and contribute to the well-being of that country. On the one hand, this way is not a bed of roses given the situation in Afghanistan, Kashmir, and India; on the other, Pakistan has the potential to remain successful if it plays the game fairly. Of course, it matters who rules the roost, and how the scuttlers of peace have been tackled.
The fact is that Pakistan’s geography can help find ways for geoeconomics. Central Asian Countries (CARs) are landlocked, and through Pakitan, they can find the shortest routes to the sea. Needless to say that with easy and fast mobility, Pakistan can export to the world. Cheap energy via CARs and Iran can provide the manufacturer with an opportunity to make goods at affordable prices. Add to this the creative destruction which will be the last nail in the coffin of elite capture in Pakistan. All these rosy pictures would not be a reality unless and until Pakistan doesn’t fix the structural issues.
Above all, a durable policy to geoeconomics ought, to begin with, reforms at home. With the new game, old rules should be replaced with new ones. One cannot get different results with the same tested ways. Until then all the changes will be precarious, cosmetic, and doomed to fail.