Imran Khan has set a date for the dissolution of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies, it is still four days away. We all know how quickly fortunes, alliances, and intents change in politics; the CM Punjab Interview on Sunday with a private news channel was something like that.
He (Pervaiz Elahi) issued a warning, saying, ‘My party and I will be the first to protect Gen (retd) Bajwa if there is any further rhetoric against him.’ Will this talk create a rift in the unity of the two parties? Yet, the PTI has stated that it requires these days for the resignation process in the National Assembly.
For the time being, it appears that the PTI (and its ally, the PML-Q) will withdraw from the assemblies and call fresh elections in Punjab and KP. During his video address to the Lahore Jalsa on Saturday night, backed by the chief ministers of Punjab and KP, Imran praised them for their “sacrifice” and warned the government not to postpone the elections.
After that, the ball is back in the PDM’s court: would the government take legal action against any dissolution, call a vote of no-confidence, or simply allow the PTI to dissolve the assemblies and hold elections in both provinces?
The most logical way to challenge the dissolution would be through a VONC or a court petition. According to reports, a faction within the main ruling party plans to call a vote of no confidence in the Punjab House on Monday (today), preventing the assembly from being dissolved.
On the other hand, some argue that the PTI should be permitted to dissolve both assemblies without difficulty so that Imran has no governmental protection to prevent him from being imprisoned or any government apparatus to assist him in campaigning during an election year.
Whatever the PML-N decides, one thing is certain: even if both provincial assemblies are dissolved, the PDM administration is unlikely to hold general elections across the country.
In terms of the dissolution decision, if the PTI chooses to pursue it, the party already has a majority in the KP Assembly and has dominated the province for more than nine years. Most analysts believe that if an election is held in KP, the PTI will easily win again. Some believe that if the PDM parties modify their seats and campaign for a joint candidate, they can still make a dent.
Punjab remains the greater challenge. When the assemblies are finally dissolved, caretaker governments in both provinces will be required to conduct elections within 90 days.
However, there are concerns inside the PTI that the caretaker establishment will last longer than the constitutionally stipulated 90 days.
If this occurs, it will be interpreted as a signal that elections will not be held even if the nuclear option is used. According to reports, the PML-Q requested seat adjustments and other guarantees from the PTI before dissolving the assembly.
There are rumours that some progress has been made on this front.
It makes sense for the Elahi because if elections are held in Punjab and the PTI forms a government, Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi will have little chance of becoming CM again.
