The PTI chairman Imran Khan said that he will announce the date for the dissolution of KP and Punjab assemblies on December 17. If this occurs, PTI Chairman Imran Khan will have played his trump card after failing to persuade the PDM government or any of the institutions to hold early elections. Some political experts had pointed out that, while the Chaudhrys of Gujrat did not want the Punjab Assembly disbanded, they would eventually do what Imran decided. Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi and Moonis Elahi of the PML-Q appear to have hedged their bets with the PTI for a future partnership.
So, what if the Punjab Assembly is dissolved sometime this month? In Punjab, this would imply a caretaker government and provincial elections within 90 days. This raises a whole new set of concerns for the PTI. There is a fear within PTI and PML-Q circles that a caretaker arrangement will be extended in the province rather than being limited to three months as required by the constitution. This anxiety is almost certainly shared by the PTI chairman.
Other concerns include Imran not being able to campaign freely across the province while his government is in power in Punjab and his protection being taken away by a new caretaker arrangement. What if the centre had more say over the provincial caretaker setup? What does that mean for Imran? It is possible that the Punjab Assembly will be dissolved first, followed by the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly later, or not at all, until the Punjab elections are completed, allowing Imran to remain in Peshawar until then.
However, if Punjab elections are held, the PTI believes it will be able to secure a simple majority, if not a two-thirds majority. Even if the general elections were held later in 2023, this would benefit the PTI at the center. With Punjab in its hands, the PTI would be in a far stronger position to contest elections for National Assembly seats in Punjab.
According to political observers, the PTI may believe that if general elections were held on schedule in all four provinces and on National Assembly seats, the party would have lost momentum by then. With proceedings against Imran pending, the party is counting on its popularity wave to ‘secure’ Punjab right away.
This might be a reasonable strategy if Imran didn’t keep requesting early elections from the establishment, both past, and present. Is the PTI losing faith in the people? The party and its leader have continued to pull institutions into a political dispute. Participating in the political process should be the only path to move forward. There are many within the PTI who are pressing for discussions as well, but Imran has refused to sit in parliament or speak with the PDM government.
If the PTI dissolves the Punjab Assembly, it is evident that the best route ahead for Imran Khan right now is an aggressive stance and an attempt to arm-twist the political and any other establishment into calling early elections. That will almost certainly result in more disorder and a disruption of the democratic process. Nobody in politics gains in that circumstance, not even Imran Khan.
