By Mohammad Jamil
In 1999, some ideas emerged from China’s Yunnan Province about a possible sub-regional cooperation involving south-western China, eastern India and the entire Myanmar and Bangladesh. The opponents of the idea say on the basis of sound reasons that it is not a feasible idea and would prove a non- starter. India has been expressing concerns over, what it said, river-diversion plan by China. Some observers in India are of view that if China pursues river diversion and dam-building projects, it will result in economic dislocation of the lower riparian countries. Apart from the fact that BCIM corridor project may adversely affect such issues, it could adversely impact relations among the member-states. In the current context of trust deficit between India and China, the initiative does not seem to reach implementation phase. Yet the four countries are examining what good could come from “Kunming Initiative”.
As the first meeting of the initiative was convened in 1999 in Kunming capital of Yunnan province, they called it Kunming Initiative. On the other hand, proponents of the idea projected two prominent objectives behind BCIM initiative – one economic integration of the sub-region, and secondly, development of the border regions. The argued that among other features, this zone is seen as the meeting point of the three markets of China, Southeast Asia and South Asia, and thereby connecting two major markets of China and India and even the whole of Asia. There is a perception among Chinese scholars that India had become lukewarm to the BCIM project by linking it with its reservations on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which passed through AJK. After witnessing slow response from India, China may put in more concerted efforts to link Kunming with Bay of Bengal by establishing its route through Lashio, Mandaley to the sea port Kyauk Phyu in Myanmar.
It is important to understand that Myanmar plays a significant role in China’s Belt and Road Initiative due to its strategic location close to South East Asia and its better opening in the Bay of Bengal. However, there are some ground realities showing that the BCIM project is not feasible and will prove a non-starter. For one it is fragile security situation in Northeastern states of India; secondly Rohingya crisis and security problem in Rakhine state; and thirdly India’s hegemonic designs. However, energy, connectivity, investment and finance, trade in goods and service, poverty alleviation and social and human development, sustainable development, and people to people contact are the thematic areas where all the countries are said to be working. China and India are once again trying to revive the stalled dialogue over BCIM economic corridor, which is expected to develop gradually before more ambitious goals are achieved.
Chinese officials acknowledge that unlike in the past, when it was perceived that India was dragging its feet, India is now showing enthusiasm over the project, which will link Kolkata with Kunming, the capital of China’s Yunnan province, passing through Myanmar and Bangladesh, with Mandalay and Dhaka among the focal points. The focus on linking provinces and States — in this case, Yunnan and West Bengal — seems to have given a new impulse to galvanising the plan. The main artery of the 2,800-km, K (Kolkata)-2-K (Kunming) corridor is nearly ready. A stretch of less than 200 km, from Kalewa to Monywa in Myanmar, needs to be upgraded as an all-weather road. From the West Bengal capital, the corridor will head towards Benapole, a border crossing town in Bangladesh. After passing through Dhaka and Sylhet, it will re-enter the Indian territory near Silchar in Assam.
The rest of the passage will be connected with Imphal and then pass through the India-built Tamu-Kalewa friendship road in Myanmar. Mandalay will be the next focal point of the corridor before the road enters Yunnan, after crossing Lashio and Muse in Myanmar. The Chinese stretch extends from Ruili before reaching Kunming through Longling and Dali. The central corridor can be connected with two supplementary passages to the north and the south. Starting from Kunming the northern passage heads towards Myitkyina, capital of Kachin state in Myanmar, before extending to Ledo in Assam. After crossing Dibrugarh and Guwahati, this road enters northern Bangladesh and joins the central corridor inside the country before reaching Kolkata. But this route is problematic because it enters a small portion of Arunachal Pradesh over which India and China have a territorial dispute. Besides, a part of this stretch is insurgency-prone, and therefore unsafe.